bne IntelliNews – Polish CPI growth slows to 4.4% yoy in June


Poland’s CPI rose 4.4% year-on-year in June, with the annual growth rate declining 0.3 pp from the previous month’s annual reading, the statistics office GUS reported on July 15.

The reading confirms the flash estimate, which GUS released earlier this month. Despite the slowdown in the growth rate from the peak in May – which was the highest inflation rate since February last year – the expansion in June prolongs the period of high inflationary pressure in Poland.

In addition, the slowdown could end soon, according to some analysts.

“At the end of the year, inflation should drop from the current rate of 4.4% to around 4.9%. November [inflation] projection of the National Bank of Poland [NBP] will probably be crucial for the trajectory of interest rates in Poland, ”wrote ING in a commentary on the GUS figures.

“The risk of intensifying inflationary processes is particularly great during the summer holidays, when there will be a combination of an increase in demand for services, increases in administered prices, such as tariffs for the water, and rising food prices, ”the state-controlled bank said. says PKO BP.

For now, however, the NBP keeps repeating that any change in Poland’s currently ultra-dovish monetary policy is unlikely until it is clear that the post-pandemic economic recovery is taking hold.

In June, the rise in the overall index was again driven by a 16.5% yoy jump in the transport segment, even though this marked a 3 pp decline compared to May. This is due to soaring fuel prices, which jumped 27.3% year-on-year in the sixth month.

Growth in the food and non-alcoholic segment accelerated to 2% yoy in June, compared to an expansion of 1.7% yoy in May. House prices, including energy prices, accelerated their growth to 5.9% yoy in June after growing 3% yoy in May.

Among other significantly weighted categories, prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products rose 1.7% year-on-year in June, 0.1 pp below the previous month’s annual reading.

Overall, goods prices rose 3.8% yoy in the sixth month after growing 4.1% yoy in May. Service price growth was 6.1% yoy compared to 6.8% yoy in May.

In monthly terms, the CPI rose 0.1% in June, dampening the growth rate against an expansion of 0.3% m / m in May.

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