Poland: Key figures for the coming week
industrial output: Annual industrial production growth moderated to a single-digit pace in July (7.6%), but is expected to improve somewhat in August (9.8%) amid less negative impact the number of working days on a year-on-year basis. Production should be supported by shorter summer production shutdowns in the automotive industry and appliance factories. Power generation was also quite strong. Production was reduced in some energy-intensive industries due to soaring natural gas prices.
PPI inflation: We expect PPI inflation to have declined to 24.5% YoY in August from 24.9% YoY in July as prices for coke manufacturing and refined petroleum products fell. Annual growth in fabricated metal product manufacturing also declined. Barring a further rise in energy and industrial raw materials, producer prices should continue to fall. We think the peak is most likely behind us.
Company salaries: In July, corporate wages jumped 15.8% year on year, boosted by one-off payments and compensation for high inflation in the mining, energy and forestry sectors. In August, growth is expected to be weaker, but still in the double digits. Nevertheless, real wages in the business sector are expected to turn negative again. The labor market remains tight, pushing wages up.
Company employment: Average salaried employment increased by 2.3% year on year in July, the number of positions having increased by 11,000 people compared to the previous month. In August, we expect a seasonal decline, but weaker than last year, which should push annual employment growth up to 2.4% year on year. Despite signs of a slowdown in activity, particularly in industry and construction, demand for labor remains solid, particularly in services.
Unemployment rate: The labor market is being emptied of skilled workers and even the influx of Ukrainian refugees who have assimilated fairly well and are active in the labor market is not putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate so far . Since January, the number of unemployed has been on a downward trajectory and the registered unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.9% for the second consecutive month in April.