Poland is facing double-digit inflation, said the chairman of the Polish Development Fund.
The warning comes as prices for consumer goods and services (consumer price index, CPI) rose 12.3% year-on-year and 2.0% month-on-month in April 2022, reported Friday. the Central Statistical Office (GUS) in a quick estimate.
Economists polled by PAP Business estimated that April’s CPI would come in at 11.5% year-on-year and 1.3% month-on-month.
In March, prices of consumer goods and services rose 11% year-on-year and 3.3% month-on-month.
Commenting on Friday’s GUS inflation data, Pawel Borys, chairman of the Polish Development Fund, said double-digit inflation could occur in the coming months “with a possible peak in the third quarter”.
Posting on Twitter, he said: “Unfortunately high food, fuel, gas, metal prices and raw material shortages, along with strong wage momentum will drive double-digit inflation over the next few coming months with a possible peak in the third quarter.
“Wages drive inflation and inflation drives wages.”
On Friday, the Central Statistics Office (GUS) reported that prices of consumer goods and services in April 2022 increased by 12.3% year-on-year and 2.0% month-on-month.
A peak in inflation will be seen in August at around 13%, said the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), a government think tank. According to PIE analysts, inflation will decline in the longer term due to a weakening of the economic situation in the euro zone.
Urszula Krynska, an analyst at PKO BP, said “the main surprise is food prices, which rose 4.2% month-on-month.” She said “Inflation has been further boosted by increases in energy and fuel prices, which are up sharply year-over-year but slowing on a month-to-month basis.”
“We saw another big surprise with inflation. This is mainly due to food and energy prices, but it seems that underlying inflation has also increased – our current estimate is 7, 3%,” said Piotr Bielinski, an analyst at Santander Bank. .
“This is undoubtedly a strong argument for a 100 basis point interest rate hike at the next MPC meeting,” he added.