Summer 2022 promises good business for the tourism industry, despite lasting shifts in travel behavior

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Things are looking up: Statista forecasts global tourism market to hit $637 billion, a 50% increase Pandemic does not affect decision-making and destination choices – Unlikely the war in Ukraine will have a serious impact on the travel industry

ITB Berlin and Statista Q dare to look to the future. Statista’s Mobility Market Outlook (MMO) predicts that the global travel industry is expected to grow by 48%, to reach $637 billion in 2022. In 2023, it will exceed pre-pandemic levels by approximately 5%, reaching nearly $756 billion. In 2022, the highest growth rate is expected for the cruise industry (180% YoY) and hospitality (57%). The hotel industry represents the largest segment of the tourism market and is likely to overtake private accommodation and holiday apartments as well as package tours. At the same time, the MMO predicts that the private housing and vacation apartment market will exceed $81 billion in total revenue, just 2% below the market volume in 2019.

Source: Messe Berlin GmbH
Source: Messe Berlin GmbH

As these forecasts do not take into account the impact of the war in Ukraine, the question is whether this will affect the global travel and tourism industry in the long term – and if so, how? According to an analysis by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), besides the coronavirus pandemic, the events with the greatest long-term impact on global civil aviation have been the combination of the bursting of the bubble Internet in 2000 and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. In 2001 and 2002, the number of global air passengers fell by one percent year-on-year, briefly interrupting the trend of growth in air transport, before regaining and surpassing pre-crisis levels in 2004. According to data received from UNWTO, in 2019 Russia and Ukraine, the two countries currently at war, accounted for 3% of global tourism spending in international travel. Assuming the war does not spread to other regions, it is unlikely to have a severe impact on the global travel industry. However, it is possible that the crisis will have a greater impact on individual markets. In Cyprus, according to Finance Minister Konstantinos Petridis, Russian tourists make up around 25% of international visitors. Their absence could cost the country up to 2% of GDP. According to the Turkish Ministry of Culture and Tourism, last year its country welcomed more than 4.5 million Russian tourists and two million from Ukraine, almost 30% of foreign visitors on vacation. Unlike Cyprus, the Turkish government has yet to impose sanctions on Russia, so it is unclear how much the Turkish tourism industry will be affected.

Holidays are back: Airlines can expect record activity this summer

Despite the crises, the Germans seem to have rediscovered the taste for travel and holidays. According to Statista’s Global Consumer Survey (GCS), more than 62% of Germans are planning at least one trip in the next 12 months. In an interview with the trade magazine Watson, Dr. Bernd Eisenstein, director of the German Institute for Tourism Research, interpreted this as the market catching up: “During the period of far-reaching restrictions, there was a demand repressed from travels. which is now truly asserting itself. This effect is also noticeable in another segment of the market. According to the German Aviation Association, the number of passenger seats now available on the tourism market has increased by 3% compared to summer 2019. In an interview with Deutsche Presseagentur, Jens Bischof, head of the leader of the Eurowings market, said: “After two years of the pandemic, millions of people finally want to catch up on their holidays or meet important business contacts again. That’s why, starting in March, his airline will serve more destinations than ever before. According to Eurowings, vacationers are focusing on the Mediterranean. Among the most popular destinations are Spain, Portugal, Greece and Italy. European destinations are usually at the top of the list of German holidaymakers. According to the GCS, 54% of people traveling this year plan to spend their holidays in Europe and 18% in Asia, which takes second place.

Covid has changed a lot – but not everything

It’s no secret that the pandemic has fundamentally changed the travel behavior of holidaymakers, both domestically and internationally. According to the GCS, the pandemic has influenced the travel behavior of 90% of travelers in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. This impact appears to be lasting: only 31% of respondents do not believe that the changes in travel behavior will be permanent.

However, some things will remain as they are. As the Eurowings flight schedules in Germany and the findings of the GCS seem to show, the reasons for choosing a destination have hardly changed. In 2022 as in 2019, the five most important criteria cited by Germans for a holiday destination are weather, nature, personal safety at the destination, local attractions and price. When it comes to prices, 36% of respondents in Germany want to spend more on vacation than before the pandemic, 31% the same amount and 31% want to spend less. Specifically, 50% of travelers plan to spend more than $2,000 on themselves and, if applicable, their family, while 17% actually plan to spend more than $3,000. Ultimately, the tourism industry can expect business to pick up over the summer, and in some markets and destinations it will already reach pre-pandemic levels.

To note: not all the latest developments are reflected in this press release, which was written in advance. In the MMO, the travel and tourism market includes package tours, hotel overnights, private accommodations and vacation apartment rentals, and cruises. A detailed definition of the global market is available at statista.com/outlook/mmo/travel-tourism/worldwide.

About Statista Q

Founded in 2007, Statista has 1,100 employees in 12 locations on four continents. As part of the successful Statista data platform, Statista Q (https://q.statista.com) helps customers find answers to individual data questions. With its substantial methodological expertise and vast experience, Statista Q deals with data-driven projects in market research, market analysis, forecasting and modeling, data analysis, data understanding , data management and visualization.


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